Gone it seems are the days when the book trade was considered to be a relatively recession-proof industry with a flurry of gloomy reports in the trade press in recent days of declines in High Street sales for both the chain stores and the independent book sellers. The Bookseller is reporting that WH Smiths has seen a 4% fall in sales in the ten weeks to 8th November, and that key trade indicators are showing eye-watering declines in general book sales of upto 12.6% in year-on-year sales comparisons, with figures that include internet and supermarket sales showing slightly smaller declines of 6.6% on the same year-on-year comparisons.

The nervous optimism reported in the trade and business press of a month ago, is still be found - particularly amongst publishers - but elsewhere the optimism has evapourated, to be replaced by a steely determinism to make the most of Christmas, and in that regard, if the book-buying intentions of the present-buying public surveyed for Deloitte's annual Christmas Retail Survey are reflected in actual purchases then there are grounds for optimism.Books are, according tot he survey, running in fourth place as our present of choice, trailing clothes, CDs and cosmetics. This represents a a rise from 55% of surveyed consumers surveyed last year saying that they intended to buy a good read as a present, to 65% this year.

Meanwhile, according to the PA Sales Monitor reported in The Bookseller, publishers have seen a decline in third-quarter sales both to the home and export markets, reducing much of the benefit of a bouyant first six months of the sales year.

Of course, the businesses of publishing and of bookselling have changed rapidly since the last full-blown recession with a difference for so many small retailers being the removal of the price protection offered by the Net Book Agreement, and the subsequent ability of the large book chains and online retailers to heavily discount their wares.

Anyone browsing the shelves of their local chain bookstore looking for the perfect christmas present might be able to edge their way past the usual pile of celeb' auto biogs (inclusding this year's retail hope Dawn French's 'Dear Fatty) to find that books about the credit crunch are, unsurprisingly, enjoying a mini-boom, including hastily published survival guides, shallow re-hashed analysis and, increasingly, some books of real value in terms of our long-term understanding of the global economic mess we're currently in. Online, Amazon have launched a special 'Thrift' strand to their sales and, apparently, a title to look forward in the coming months of economic gloom is a manual of tips and knowing insight from the First Lady of the Dragon's Den, Deborah Meadon. Both Amazon and Waterstones have announced reductions and removalsof delivery costs in a bid to win buyers. One winner is definetly Delia's title on frugal meals.

Also doing well, according to recent reports in The Scotsman, are publisher Mills and Boon who are selling a book every three seconds in this their centenary year. Launched in 1908 as the off-shoot of a publisher of etiquette titles, Mills and Boon enjoyed its first sales peak in the World War 1. Other reports show that on-line dating agencies are enjoying brisk Credit Crunch trade, and there's news that following its publication in September of a revised and thoroughly updated version of 'The Joy of Sex' (that 1972 classic and publishing phenomena), publisher Mitchell Beazley is publishing two new titles by relationship psychologist Susan Quilliam in time for Valentines Day 09. 'The Adventurous Lover' and 'The Romantic Lover' promise to be, according to their publisher, 'sophisticated and elegant' tomes, and are retailing at an affordable £8.99, complete with a promise of less emphasis on bullet-pointing of text and more on readable, silky prose.

It seems that in a recession, one cliche does ring true and that is that as consumers of books we might not reduce our over-all spend but switch our buying tastes and habits as we eschew opportunities to be our normal frivolous and extravagant selves in favour of pleasures that are more reliable. Simply, we seek out less-costly but none-the-less satisfying consumables that enhance our sense of enjoyment and security in home and creature comforts and which put us in control of our finaces. More evidence required? Well, sales of books on keeping allotments, chickens and other rustic lifelines are racing ahead, with 200% increase being reported on sales of some key titles, and the fact remains that we simply can't afford the gilt-edged luxuries and we don't want to endure heavy economic weather on our lonesome.

To close on a note of hopeless idealism, maybe the recession will deal a serious blow to the cult of celeb' titles, with publishers being less keen to pursue high cost / high risk acquisitions (Jonathen Ross's book is seeing a swift decline in sales) in favour of more old-fashioned and sustainable high quality publishing values. In Scotland, there are signs of publishers keeping their eye firmly on the ball with Canongate's recent acquisition of another Barack Obama title.

One thing is for sure, we have in the Highlands and Islands, and a cross Scotland, a wealth of writing talent, and it is my hunch that quality content is the long-term solution to any woes in the economics of the book trade. One leading publisher recently highlighted the need for publishers to invest wisely but to invest during a recession. Publishing, if newspaper and magazine sectors are included, now accounts for the largest individual sector in the creative industries in the UK. Maybe some of the UK's relative resilience to recession is that we have, this time around, highly developed, flexible and profitable sectors in our economy such as the creative industries alongside more traditional industries such as financial services which are fundamentally vulnerable to global economics. This is the time to recognise the value of this sector and to increase %GDP public spend on creative industries' start-ups, skills and support for content providers.